South Africa poised for a record 17 million ton maize harvest

Good rains through the growing season and a national white maize yield above 5.5 tonnes a hectare are behind the record. Here is where the tonnes are, where they will go, and what it does to price.

Where the tonnes are

White maize area held at about 1.66 million hectares, so the record is a yield story rather than an area story. The Free State, Mpumalanga and North West carried the bulk of the crop, and the eastern Free State, where our Vrede operation sits, had one of its best seasons in recent years.

Where the tonnes will go

Domestic milling takes about 5 million tonnes of white maize a year. Feed demand rises when white trades below yellow, as it does now. The balance, several million tonnes, goes to the region by road and further afield by sea. Exports through the marketing year are expected to lift by more than 50% over the previous season.

Price

A crop this size pulls prices toward export parity, and by late May white maize was trading near R3,200 a tonne, close to the yellow maize price. That is good news for millers and feed manufacturers and a reason for producers to have offtake in place before harvest rather than sell into the spot market at delivery.

Figures are from the CEC production estimates and Grain SA’s May 2026 supply and demand release; the final crop figure is published after harvest.