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The Original Grain Company Confirms Strong Supply Position Ahead of 2026/27 Season; Monitoring El Niño Outlook for White Maize

South Africa enters the new season from a position of surplus. The company highlights ample stocks, sector resilience and prudent forward planning as it tracks the developing weather outlook.

The Original Grain Company today shared its perspective on the potential implications of the anticipated El Niño weather pattern for South Africa’s white maize sector in the 2026/27 production season. The company wishes to place the outlook in context: South Africa enters this period of seasonal uncertainty from a position of considerable strength, underpinned by two consecutive strong harvests and healthy carry-over stocks.

A strong starting point
The 2025/26 season delivered one of the country’s largest summer grain harvests on record, with maize output of approximately 16.5 million tonnes — comfortably above national annual maize consumption of around 12 million tonnes. White maize prices have eased materially over recent months, and national food inflation has remained contained at low single-digit levels. In short, the country is currently well supplied, and there is no near-term shortage of white maize.

The weather outlook, in perspective
International agencies, including the World Meteorological Organization, indicate that an El Niño pattern is likely to develop and could strengthen through the 2026/27 summer. In the Southern African context, El Niño seasons are historically associated with drier, warmer conditions in the summer-rainfall maize belt. It is important to stress that the eventual impact depends on the timing and severity of the event — both of which remain uncertain at this stage of the forecast cycle. The Original Grain Company is monitoring the situation closely alongside official forecasters and industry bodies, and will plan on a measured, evidence-led basis as the season unfolds.

What this could mean for farmers
A drier season would place some pressure on yields and may influence planting decisions, particularly when combined with input and fuel costs and currently soft commodity prices. At the same time, South Africa’s commercial grain sector is highly mechanised and capital-intensive, with growing adoption of precision-farming techniques — factors that provide meaningful resilience and that distinguish the country from more vulnerable producers in the region. Even in a challenging season, South African producers would be entering it from a comparatively well-resourced base.

What this could mean for consumers
White maize meal is a staple of the South African diet, and the company is mindful of its social importance. Current surplus production and healthy stock levels provide a buffer against abrupt price movements. Should drier conditions affect the next crop, any influence on retail prices would be expected to emerge gradually rather than suddenly, and the country’s surplus position and established import capacity offer further cushioning. Past El Niño seasons have demonstrated that South Africa’s grain system can draw on stocks and imports to maintain reliable supply.

The company’s position
The Original Grain Company regards the current outlook as manageable. The business is well stocked, maintains prudent forward planning and diversified sourcing, and does not anticipate any material disruption to its operations or its ability to serve customers. Management views proactive monitoring — rather than alarm — as the appropriate response to a seasonal risk of this nature.

“South Africa is heading into this season from a position of surplus, not scarcity,” said Ryan New, Managing Director of The Original Grain Company. “El Niño is a known seasonal risk, and we treat it with the respect it deserves — but we also treat it with perspective. We have strong stocks behind us, a resilient and well-run commercial farming sector, and clear contingency planning in place. Our job is to stay ahead of the weather, support our farmers and protect supply for consumers, and that is exactly what we are doing.”